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Oil Pdf 177685 | Kaji0107

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          IEEJ : July 2001
                Crude Oil Procurement by Japanese Oil Companies
                                 Shigeki KAJIWARA
                                 Researcher of Oil Group
             (Marketing Administration Group, Marketing Administration Dept. Kyushu Oil Co., Ltd, now)
          Introduction
              The world crude oil market contains not merely spot markets featuring physical transactions but
          highly developed paper markets, notably futures and forward delivery, thus forming a very composite
          market structure in which all these transactions are interrelated and reciprocally influential.  While driv-
          ing forward management rationalization and efficiency increases, Japan’s oil industry on its part recog-
          nizes that, on intricate-ever international crude oil markets, how to identify and procure crude oil of good
          economics are the industry’s top priorities. In this report, a train of general business procedures related to
          crude oil procurement by Japanese oil companies, ranging from the selection of grades of crude oil to be
          purchased, transportation of crude oil by tankers, mechanism of determining crude oil prices, to settle-
          ment of invoices covering crude oil purchases are outlined, quoting actual examples.
          1   Overall Train of Business Procedures Related to Crude Oil Procurement
              Train of procedures for crude oil procurement by oil companies: A general train of crude oil
          procurement business procedures in oil companies is shown in Fig. 1 Note 1 on the next page.  First of all,
          oil companies must determine volumes of crude oil needed to be procured, grades of crude oil, and the
          timing of procurement.  In general, when procuring crude oil, oil companies establish optimal plans for
          refinery product output, taking into account the scale of estimated demand for oil products and the total
          product sales volume, and work out concrete crude oil purchase plans on a medium- and long-term basis
          (for one year or longer) and on a short-term basis (for the current month), based on the optimal refinery
          production plans noted above.
              Conclusion of crude oil purchase contracts:  Based on the foregoing crude oil purchase plans, oil
          companies conclude crude oil purchase contracts - either term or spot contracts 0— with crude oil sellers
          or suppliers (i.e., crude oil-producing countries or the international oil majors).  While the term-to-spot
          contracts ratio varies, depending on individual oil companies’ projections of oil supply and demand for
          the future and their management strategies, the Japanese oil companies are purchasing crude oil at a ratio
          of 80 to 20, on an average, in favor of term contracts.  Whatever the contract form may be adopted, the oil
          companies as crude oil buyers reach agreements with sellers at this stage of concluding contracts on
          various conditions such as volumes, grades, prices, and the timing for crude oil purchase.
          Note 0: This report constitutes a part of the study report on a research conducted in fiscal 2000 under a consignment
              agreement between the Agency of Natural Resources and Energy of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry
              (currently the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry) and the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan.
                                       1
                      IEEJ : July 2001
                              Business of crude oil loading crude oil into tankers: Concrete crude oil loading into tankers
                      comes next.  This procedure is carried out basically on a monthly basis.  In reference to Fig. 1 illustrated
                      above as a concrete example, the oil company (i.e., the buyer) involved, in order that Middle Eastern
                      crude oil is lifted in August and transported to Japan in a VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier), is expected
                      to undergo negotiations with the oil-producing country or the major (i.e., the seller) concerned during
                      July, or the month preceding the month of loading, for settlement of items in concrete terms such as the
                      volume, the grade, and the Date Range (the timing for loading crude oil into the tanker at the shipping
                      port).
                                             Fig. 1   Train of General Procedures for Crude Oil Procurement
                                            Example :  Middle Eastern crude, lifted in August, is transported to Japan by a VLCC
                                                 *Loading of Mideastern crude in late August ~ arriving in Japan in mid- September
                                                 *Transportation period: around 20 days
                                                 *Tanker (VLCC) is spot-chartered
                                 Procedure                                             Business Schedule                
                                                              June                     July                   August                 September
                         Purchasing stage:             Formulation of refinery production
                                                       plan and crude oil purchase plan;
                             Determination of          Conclusion of term/spot purchase
                             volume and grades of      contracts (Decision-making on
                             crude oil to be           volume and grades of crude oil to be
                             purchased and timing of   purchased and timing of purchase)
                             purchase
                         Loading stage:
                                                                   Proposal of nomination to seller
                                                                   (oil-producing country/major)
                             Determination of Date                 (to be made by July 10)
                             Range                                                     Negotiations and adjustments with
                                                                                       seller to determine Date Range
                                                                                                                Work of loading at shipping
                             Chartering/allocation of                          Formulation of tanker                 Ocean transportation (about 20 days)
                             tankers and loading of                            allocation plan, spot-
                             purchased crude                                   chartering of tanker                    Work of unloading at receiving port
                                                                                                                               Payment of charges for
                             Settlement of payment                                                                             crude oil (within 30days
                             for purchased crude oil                                                                           of unloading finished)
                      Note 1: Fig. 1 and a train of fundamental business procedures related to crude oil procurement, as outlined below, represent
                               only one example and it should be noted that they are subject to variations, depending on a contract form and a
                               business environment as well as unexpected troubles forcing modifications of various plans originally adopted, result
                               ing in sudden changes in business procedures and requiring much more complicated reactions to such changes.  More
                               over, although Japan’s crude oil procurement from the Middle East area - the largest crude oil supply source for Japan
                               - is taken up as a concrete example in this report, it is necessary to note that some aspects of the business procedures
                               differ from those outlined here in case crude oil is procured from areas other than the Middle East.
                                                                                       2
                     IEEJ : July 2001
                            Chartering of tankers:  As the Middle Eastern crude is traded on an FOB (Free On Board) basis,
                     the oil company (i.e., the buyer) must charter a tanker to afford a means of transporting crude oil pur-
                     chased and assign the tanker to a loading port so that the Date Range agreed on with the seller side can be
                     met.  The tanker employed is either owned by the oil company involved or chartered from a shipping
                     company on a long-term basis, or chartered from the spot tanker market.
                            Settlement of payment for purchased crude oil:  Settlement of crude oil purchase accounts is
                     generally made within 30 days from the date of finishing crude oil loading (i.e., the B/L Date).  In case of
                     lifting crude oil in August, the price of the bulk of crude oil is determined on the basis of the international
                     spot market in August and hence the price of crude oil purchased is finalized from the end of August to
                     the beginning of September.
                     2      Crude Oil Purchasing Stage
                            (Formulation of Crude Oil Purchase Plans ‘ Conclusion of Contracts)
                            Outlined below are procedures followed by oil companies when procuring crude oil, showing how
                     volumes and grades of crude oil to be purchased and the timing of purchase are determined.
                                  Fig. 2   General Decision-Making Process in Crude Oil Procurement Activities
                                    Long-term stance                                                           Short-term stance
                                Estimation of demand for oil           Successive modifications of         Estimation of demand for oil
                                  products and sales volume            basic plans as dictated by           products and sales volume
                                    (Medium- & long-term plan)         changes in actual conditions                (Short-term plan)
                                   Formulation of crude oil                                             Formulation of crude oil processing
                              processing and refinery production       Successive modifications of         and refinery production plan
                                             plan                      basic plans as dictated by
                                                                       changes in actual conditions                (Short-term plan)
                                    (Medium- & long-term plan)
                                                                        Calculate gap between
                                                                        necessary crude oil volume on
                              Estimation of necessary crude oil         short-term basis and term-       Estimation of necessary crude oil
                                                                        purchase volume
                                     processing volume                                                          processing volume
                                        (Grades, volume)                Action to changes in grades of       (Grades, volume, and economics)
                                                                        crude oil for processing
                                  Conclusion of term-                                                  Conclusion of spot purchase
                                   purchase contracts                                                              contracts
                              *Purchase of DD crude                                                     *Totally spot purchase
                              *Purchase of GG crude                                                     *Action to increase in term-purchase volume,
                              *Purchase from other concession right holders                               changes in grades, and swap in grades, etc.
                              *Purchase from trading firms and traders, etc.
                                                                      Determination of monthly
                                                                           purchase volume
                           (Source: Prepared on the basis of various published materials)
                                                                                   3
                       IEEJ : July 2001
                               Decision-making process for crude oil procurement:  Fig. 2 shows a general decision-making
                        process followed by oil companies when procuring crude oil.  In general, oil companies formulate opti-
                        mal refinery production plans, based on anticipated demand for oil products and product sales volume.
                        The optimal refinery production plan thus formulated is then compared with actual crude oil inventories
                        to determine in concrete terms necessary volumes and grades of crude oil to be purchased and the timing
                        of purchase.
                               Formulation of refinery production plan: Next, Fig. 3 shows a process for formulating refinery
                        production plan and a train of concrete production activities.  Today, many oil companies formulate
                        optimal refinery production patterns, using L/P (linear programming) models.  When formulating refin-
                        ery production plans, following factors are put into the model as exogenous factors — (1) product sales
                        plan based on demand projection, product sales prices, and product distribution and marketing costs, (2)
                                                Fig. 3   Process for Formulating Refinery Production Plan and
                                                           Concrete Production Activities Based on Plans
                                     Demand for oil products for domestic consumption
                                                                                                      Refinery processing
                                                   Product sales plan                                         facilities
                                                                                                 *Refining process unit capacities
                                            *Sales volume for each product                         (Distillation facilities)
                                            *Selling price of each product                       *Secondary processing unit capacities
                                            *Product distribution/marketing costs                *Processing costs
                                                                                                       Processing of crude oil
                                                      To formulate optimal refinery                  *Crude oil supply availability
                                                      production plan by using L/P                   *Grades and qualities of crude oil
                                                      (linear programming) models                    *Crude oil supply cost
                                                                                                       (incl.transportation costs)
                                              To indicate necessary crude oil processing  To indicate concrete production for each refinery
                                              volume based on refinery production plan
                                                            Section in        Supply crude
                                                                               oil to each
                                                         charge of crude        refinery
                                                          oil purchases
                                                                                         Refinery A            Refinery B            Refinery C
                                                                                       As grades of crude oil processed and process unit operational
                                                                                       patterns differ for each group of products such as fuel products,
                                                                                       lubricating oil, and specialty products, refinery operation is
                                                                                       carried out in block in accordance with volume required for each
                                                                                       group of products.
                                                                                            Each oil product is supplied to the market.
                                    (Source: Prepared on the basis of various published materials.)
                                                                                            4
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...Ieej july crude oil procurement by japanese companies shigeki kajiwara researcher of group marketing administration dept kyushu co ltd now introduction the world market contains not merely spot markets featuring physical transactions but highly developed paper notably futures and forward delivery thus forming a very composite structure in which all these are interrelated reciprocally influential while driv ing management rationalization efficiency increases japans industry on its part recog nizes that intricate ever international how to identify procure good economics industrys top priorities this report train general business procedures related ranging from selection grades be purchased transportation tankers mechanism determining prices settle ment invoices covering purchases outlined quoting actual examples overall for is shown fig note next page first must determine volumes needed procured timing when procuring establish optimal plans refinery product output taking into account sca...

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