jagomart
digital resources
picture1_Intp Pdf 97212 | 032618


 140x       Filetype PDF       File size 0.36 MB       Source: www.poems.co.id


File: Intp Pdf 97212 | 032618
indocement tunggal prakarsa intp ij 26 march 2018 fy 2017 result update hold upgraded indonesia basic industries cement company update market price idr 17 425 target price idr 19 100 ...

icon picture PDF Filetype PDF | Posted on 20 Sep 2022 | 3 years ago
Partial capture of text on file.
         
                                                                                                                                              
          Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)                                                                                                                26 March 2018 
          FY 2017 Result Update                                                                                                              HOLD (Upgraded) 
          INDONESIA | BASIC INDUSTRIES - CEMENT | COMPANY UPDATE                                                                             MARKET PRICE       IDR 17,425 
                                                                                                                                             TARGET PRICE        IDR 19,100 (+9.6%) 
          Result Highlights                                                                                                                  PREVIOUS                IDR 19,800 
                •     Revenue came in at IDR 14.4 tn (-6.1%), Net profit fell to IDR 1.86 tn (-51.9%).                                        
                                                                                                                                             COMPANY DATA 
                •     Declining profitability margins in the midst of higher energy costs and lower selling                                  O/S SHARES (BN) :                              3.681 
                      price.                                                                                                                 MARKET CAP (IDR TN) :                          63.13 
                                                                                                                                             MARKET CAP (USDBN) :                             4.60 
                •     FY18/19 Earnings revised down.                                                                                         52 - WK HI/LO (IDR) :                 23,950/15,800 
          Weak 2017 Earnings                                                                                                                 3M AVG. VOLUME (MN SHARES):                      1.44 
                                                                                                                                             PAR VALUE (IDR) :                                500 
          INTP recorded FY 2017 net income of IDR 1.86 trillion (-51.9%) (86% of our estimate, 90%                                            
          of consensus). Revenue dropped 6.1% to IDR 14,4 tn from IDR 15.3 tn, triggered by freefall  MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS, % 
          in Ready-Mix Concrete sales (-23.7%). Despite rising sales volume (+2.5%), revenue from  BIRCHWOOD OMNIA LIMITED                                                                    51% 
          cement dipped (-3.22%) as average selling price (ASP) was under pressure.                                                          STANDARD LIFE ABERDEEN PLC                     4.60% 
                                                                                                                                             MASSACHUSETTS MUTUAL LIFE INS                  3.52% 
                                                                                                                                             BLACKROCK                                      1.34% 
          Margin Pressure                                                                                                                    VANGUARD GROUP                                 1.28% 
          Meanwhile, cost of revenues increased by 4.3% to reach IDR 9.4 tn ending the consecutive                                            
          decline in the past two years. As expected, the rise in fuel and power expenses represented                                        PRICE VS. JCI 
          the highest increase in cost of revenues (+15.77%). Nonetheless, looking from per ton                                                160
          perspective, COGS per tonne in fact decreased to IDR 555,000/tonne (-0.2%). Furthermore,                                             150
          similar trend could be seen in its operating expenses, where it grew by 14.1% to IDR 2.3                                             140
          trillion and ended the successive decreases in the past two years. Significant increases                                             130
          could be found in Advertising and promotion account under selling expenses where it                                                  120
          jumped by 173% to IDR 108 bn as INTP tried to increase customer base via promotion and                                               110
          end-user programs.  Other operating expenses also soared by 177% to reach IDR 121 bn. As                                             100
          a result, we see margin compression with GPM down to 34.7% (vs 41.2% in FY16), OPM fell                                               90
          to 13% (vs 23.7%) and NPM was halved to 12.9% (vs 25.2%).                                                                             80
                                                                                                                                                       17  17 17  17  17  17  17  17  17 17  18  18  18
                                                                                                                                                       -   -  -   -   -   -   -   -   -  -   -   -   -
          Sumatera-bound                                                                                                                               r   pr y   un  ul  ug  ep  t   ov ec  n   eb  r
          The new Palembang terminal commenced its operation last week (19/03/2018). The 3.2                                                           Ma  A  Ma  J   J   A   S   Oc  N  D   Ja  F   Ma
          hectare new terminal has a jetty port, 2 cement silos with 5,000 tonnes capacity each, 1                                                         INTP Rebased               JCI Rebased
          cement packer of 120 tonne/hour capability, a bulk cement loader and a 1,458 m2                                                       Source: Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia Research, 
          warehouse among others. Another terminal is being built in Lampung on a 4.2 hectare area                                                                Bloomberg 
          and is targeted to operate in 3Q18. It will contain 3 steel cement silos with capacity of   
          4,000 tonnes apiece, 1 jetty port, 1 cement packer of 180 tonne/hour capability, a bulk  KEY FINANCIALS 
          cement loader and 1,000 m2 warehouse among others. The new terminals is intended to                                                      IDR bn         FY17A      FY18F       FY19F 
          cater the Southern Sumatera market and expected to give INTP a stronger foothold in the                                                                 14,431     15,072     15,860 
          island. Management believes Sumatera is a prospective market to focus on after Java. The                                                Revenue 
          double digit cement demand in the area – 14.2 million tonnes of cement were consumed in                                                 EBITDA           2,964      3,245      3,510 
          Sumatera in 2017, and better infrastructure made the management to invest in the area,                                                 Net Profit        1,860      2,083      2,397 
          especially when INTP’s market share in the area could do with a little improving (11%).                                                 EPS, IDR          505        566        651 
                                                                                                                                                   P/E, x          34.49      30.79      26.77 
          Rating and Valuation                                                                                                                     P/BV, x          2.61      2.54        2.45 
          We slightly decrease our DCF-derived 12-month forward target price to IDR 19,100. As                                                 EV/EBITDA, x        18.88      17.08      14.97 
          such, we re-upgrade the rating to HOLD reflecting the undervalued nature it currently in                                                 ROE, %           7.6        8.2        9.2 
                                                                                                                                                  ROA, %            6.4        7.0        7.8 
          following the plunge in its share price. INTP share is currently trading at 30.79 x PE or at or                                       Div. Yield, %     2.10%      2.36%       2.71% 
          near its 3 year historical PE average and also at 17.08x EV/EBITDA.                                                                 Source: Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia Research 
                                                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                             Valuation Method: DCF 
                                                                                                                                             Anugerah Zamzami Nasr (+62 57900800) 
                                                                                                                                             anugerah.zamzami@phillip.co.id 
                                                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                              
        Page | 1 | PHILLIP SEKURITAS INDONESIA  
         
            
            
                                                                                                            INDOCEMENT TUNGGAL PRAKASA  RESULT UPDATE 
                                                                                         
                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                          
              
             Figure 1  – INTP Profitability Margin                                                                                           Figure 2  – INTP’ Earnings 
              
                                                                                                                                                     25
                50%                                                                                                                                                                                                                               20%
                                                                                                                                                     20
                40%                                                                                                                               n                                                                                               0%
                                                                                                                                                  illio15
                30%                                                                                                                               r                                                                                               -20%
                                                                                                                                                   T 10
                                                                                                                                                  R
                20%                                                                                                                               D
                                                                                                                                                  I                                                                                               -40%
                10%                                                                                                                                    5
                                                                                                                                                       0                                                                                          -60%
                  0%                                                                                                                                           2014          2015         2016          2017 2018F 2019F
                                 2015A               2016A                2017A                2018F               2019F
                                                                                                                                                                  Total Revenues                                  Net Income
                                    Gross Profit Margin                         OP Margin                   NPM
                                                                                                                                                                  Revenue Growth (RHS)                            Net Income Growth (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
              Source: Company, Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia Research 
              
              
              
           Figure 3 – Coal Price                                                                                                         Figure 4  – INTP PE Band 
                                                                                                                                          
               USD/Ton                                                                                                                        60
               120
               100                                                                                                                            50
                 80                                                                                                                           40
                 60
                 40                                                                                                                           30
                 20
                                                                                                                                              20
                   0                                                                                                                          10
              
                                                                                                                                                0
                                                                                                                                                     Ma       Ma      J        Se       N       J       Ma       Ma       J       Se       N       J        Ma
                                                                                                                                                                      ul       p        ov      an                        ul      p        ov      an
                                                                                                                                                     r        y       -                         -       r        y        -                        -        r
                                                                                                                                                     -                2016     -        -       2017    -                 2017    -        -       2018     -
                                            Rotterdam                         Newcastle                         HBA                                  2016     -                2016     2016            2017     -                2017     2017             2018
                                                                                                                                                              2016                                               2017
              
              
                                                                                                                                                                             PE                      Avg PE                 PE +1 std
                                                                                                                                                                             PE -1 std               PE +2 std              PE -2 std
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
               Source: PSI Research, Bloomberg, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources                       Source: PSI Research 
              
              
                 Figure 5 – Earnings Revision 
              
                                                                   New                                         Old                                   Change 
                  IDR bn                              2018F                2019F                2018F                 2019F                 2018F               2019F 
                 Revenue                             15,072               15,860                15,395                16,099               -2.10%              -1.48% 
                 Operating Profit                     2,108                2,460                 2,296                 2,586               -8.21%              -4.85% 
              
                 Net Income                           2,083                2,397                 2,243                 2,494               -7.13%              -3.91% 
                
              
              
              
              
              
              
              
                                                                                                                                                                                            Page | 2 | PHILLIP SEKURITAS INDONESIA 
            
        
        
                                                                     INDOCEMENT TUNGGAL PRAKASA  RESULT UPDATE 
                                                         
       Financials                                        
        FYE                                                             2016A       2017E      2018F       2019F 
        Income Statement (IDR bn)                                                                              
        Revenue                                                         15,362     14,431      15,072      15,860 
        COGS                                                             9,030      9,423       9,640      9,890 
        Gross profit                                                     6,331      5,008       5,433      5,971 
        Operating expenses                                               2,687      3,133       3,325      3,510 
        Operating profit / EBIT                                          3,645      1,875       2,108      2,460 
        EBITDA                                                           4,578      2,964       3,245      3,658 
        Interest income                                                   496        416         457        489 
        Interest expense                                                   7          5           5          6 
        Other non-operating expense                                        5          10         10          10 
        EBT                                                              4,146      2,287       2,562      2,947 
        Tax expenses                                                      275        427         479        551 
        Net Income                                                       3,870      1,860       2,083      2,397 
                                                                                                               
        Revenue Breakdown (IDR bn)                                                                             
        Cement                                                          13,185     12,760      13,475      14,300 
        Ready Mix Concrete                                               2,167      1,652       1,575      1,533 
        Aggregate                                                          9          19         23          27 
                                                                                                               
        Balance Sheet (IDR bn)                                                                                 
        Cash and cash equivalents                                        9,674      8,295       8,841      9,506 
        Account Receivable                                               2,617      2,504       2,615      2,752 
        Inventories                                                      2,002      1,978       2,023      2,075 
        PPE - net                                                       14,644     14,979      15,129      15,287 
        Other assets                                                     1,214      1,108       1,148      1,199 
        Total assets                                                    30,151     28,864      29,756      30,819 
        Account Payable                                                  2,126      2,276       2,329      2,389 
        Accrued Expenses                                                  773        870         923        974 
        Other current liabilities                                         289        333         349        372 
        Capital Lease                                                     37          20         21          22 
        Other non-current liabilities                                     787        808         844        888 
        Total liabilities                                                4,012      4,307       4,466      4,645 
        Total Equity                                                    26,139     24,557      25,290      26,174 
         
                                                                                                               
        ASP Cement (IDR) – excl clinker                                801,547     759,396    763,193     770,824 
        Cement Sales Vol (mn tonnes) – excl clinker                      16.45      16.80       17.66      18.55 
         
                                                                                                               
        Source: Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia Research 
                                                                                                               
                                                                                                               
         
         
         
         
                                                                                                               
         
         
         
                                                                                                                        Page | 3 | PHILLIP SEKURITAS INDONESIA 
        
             
             
                                                                                                                       INDOCEMENT TUNGGAL PRAKASA  RESULT UPDATE 
                                                                                                  
              FYE                                                                                        2015A               2016A               2017E               2018F               2019F 
                                                                                                  
              Cash Flow Statement (IDR bn)                                                                                                                                                     
              Net income                                                                                                      3,870               1,860              2,083               2,397 
              Depreciation & Amortization                                                                                      933                1,089              1,162               1,221 
              Changes in NWC                                                                                                   218                 436                 (42)                (63) 
              Others                                                                                                          (520)                104                   7                   4 
              Cash Flow from Operations                                                                                       4,502              3,489               3,210               3,558 
              Capex                                                                                                         (1,752)             (1,414)             (1,300)             (1,368) 
              Others                                                                                                          (120)                (13)                (19)                (19) 
              Cash Flow from Investing                                                                                      (1,872)             (1,427)             (1,319)             (1,387) 
              Dividends                                                                                                     (1,528)             (3,420)             (1,350)             (1,512) 
              Others                                                                                                           (84)                (21)                  5                   6 
              Cash Flow from Financing                                                                                      (1,612)             (3,441)             (1,345)             (1,506) 
              Net change in cash                                                                                              1,018             (1,379)                546                 665 
              Cash Ending                                                                                                     9,674               8,295              8,841               9,506 
                                                                                                                                                                                               
              Valuation Ratios                                                                                                                                                                 
              P/E (x)                                                                                                         14.65              34.49               30.79               26.77 
              P/B (x)                                                                                                          2.17                2.61                2.54                2.45 
              Dividend Yield (%)                                                                                             6.03%               2.10%               2.36%               2.71% 
              EV/EBITDA (x)                                                                                                   10.29              18.88               17.08               14.97 
                                                                                                                                                                                               
              Growth & Margins                                                                                                                                                                 
              Growth                                                                                                                                                                           
              Cement Revenue                                                                                                -13.5%               -3.2%                5.6%                6.1% 
              Revenue                                                                                                       -13.7%               -6.1%                4.4%                5.2% 
              Gross profit                                                                                                  -19.9%              -20.9%                8.5%                9.9% 
              Operating profit                                                                                              -27.9%              -48.6%               12.4%               16.7% 
              EBT                                                                                                           -26.6%              -44.8%               12.0%               15.1% 
              Net Income                                                                                                    -11.2%              -51.9%               12.0%               15.1% 
              Margins                                                                                                                                                                          
              Gross Margin                                                                                                   41.2%               34.7%               36.0%               37.6% 
              EBIT Margin                                                                                                    23.7%               13.0%               14.0%               15.5% 
              EBITDA Margin                                                                                                  29.8%               20.5%               21.5%               23.1% 
              Net Profit Margin                                                                                              25.2%               12.9%               13.8%               15.1% 
              Key ratios                                                                                                                                                                       
              ROA                                                                                                            12.8%                6.4%                7.0%                7.8% 
              ROE                                                                                                            14.8%                7.6%                8.2%                9.2% 
              Current Ratio                                                                                                    4.5x                3.7x                3.8x                3.9x 
              DER                                                                                                            15.3%               17.5%               17.7%               17.7% 
              Per share data (IDR)                                                                                                                                                             
              EPS                                                                                                             1,051                505                 566                 651 
              DPS                                                                                                              415                 929                 367                 411 
              BVPS                                                                                                            7,101               6,671              6,870               7,110 
                
               Source: Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia Research 
             
             
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Page | 4 | PHILLIP SEKURITAS INDONESIA 
             
The words contained in this file might help you see if this file matches what you are looking for:

...Indocement tunggal prakarsa intp ij march fy result update hold upgraded indonesia basic industries cement company market price idr target highlights previous revenue came in at tn net profit fell to data declining profitability margins the midst of higher energy costs and lower selling o s shares bn cap usdbn earnings revised down wk hi lo weak m avg volume mn par value recorded income trillion our estimate consensus dropped from triggered by freefall major shareholders ready mix concrete sales despite rising birchwood omnia limited dipped as average asp was under pressure standard life aberdeen plc massachusetts mutual ins blackrock margin vanguard group meanwhile cost revenues increased reach ending consecutive decline past two years expected rise fuel power expenses represented vs jci highest increase nonetheless looking per ton perspective cogs tonne fact decreased furthermore similar trend could be seen its operating where it grew ended successive decreases significant increases ...

no reviews yet
Please Login to review.